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< 読書感想『楢山節考』 | メイン | 医療ドラマから学べること >
2010.02.28 22:22 |  映画 / 音楽 / 読書  |  その他（一般）  |  社会・歴史  |  おかだ  | 推薦数 : 1

津波警報

　本読みの私が「津波」ですぐ思い出すのは、『つなみ』（パール・バック）です。そう言えば、この作品が映画化されたとき（タイトルは「大津波」）、原作者自らが日本にやってきて映画の撮影現場でずっと見学（見物？）をしていたのは、よく知られた話でしょうか。(*1)

　今回の津波警報では、特に三陸の「大津波警報」が目立っていましたが、この地域は古くから繰り返し大津波に襲われています。歴史に残っているのは、貞観の大津波（869年）・慶長の大津波（1611年）です。安政三年（1856）にも津波がありましたがこのときの損害は軽微でした。ところがこの「損害が軽微」が次の津波への備えをおろそかにすることになります。
　明治三陸大津波は、明治29年（1896）６月15日（旧暦では５月５日端午の節句）夜８時頃に襲ってきました。陸で感じた地震は軽いものでしたが津波は巨大で、最大波高38.2m。死者は、北海道６人青森340人宮城3400人岩手18000人（概数）。被害戸数は約10000戸でした。
　昭和８年（1933）３月３日朝３時前後、「昭和の大津波」が三陸を襲います。最大波高28.7m、死者は約3000人でした。明治の教訓があり、地震後海を見張っていた人が多かったことが前回と比較して死者の減少を生みました。
　昭和35年（1960）５月24日には、チリの大地震による大津波が日本を襲います。実は1952年に三好寿（津波の専門家）が「チリからの津波を警戒するべき」とすでに述べており、当日もハワイから気象庁に津波の情報が電報で届いていたのですが気象庁は「チリから日本に津波が届くことはあり得ない」と無視したため警報が遅れ、142人が死亡しています。専門家の当てにならない（とお役人が判断した）予測は無視するにしても、ハワイからの電報を無視しなければ、この死者は出ませんでした。(*2)

　で、「前回の教訓」が今回は生かされたわけです。
　結果を見て「今回は騒ぎすぎ」という感想を持つ人もおられるでしょうが、その逆よりはるかにマシです。それに少なくとも「チリから津波が日本に来る」ことは当たったわけですし。よく「警報を軽々に出すとパニックを招く」と嫌う人がいますが、たとえば今回パニックはどのくらい起きましたっけ？　　めったに起きないパニックをそこまで怖れなければならないのは、なぜなんでしょう？(*3)

　ところで、「チリからの津波が日本に到達する」ということは、“逆もまた真なり”で「日本からの津波も太平洋の向こうまで到達する」ことを意味します。日本では近い将来（今世紀中？）、東海・東南海・南海などの大地震が起きることが高い確率で予測されていますが、それが起きたときに、太平洋の反対側（北・東・南）へも「津波警報」を出せる体制はきちんと作ってあるのでしょうか？



*0)『つなみ』パール・バック 著､ 黒井健 訳､ 径書房、2005年、1500円（税別）

*1)『潜る人　──ジャック・マイヨールと大崎映晋』佐藤嘉尚　著、文藝春秋、2006年、1571円(税別)
*2)『津波と防災　──三陸津波始末』山下文男 著､ 古今書院、2008年、2500円（税別）
*3)『人は皆「自分だけは死なない」と思っている　──防災オンチの日本人』山村武彦　著、宝島社、2005年、1200円(税別)



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